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. >>> so the big news this week is not so much what the fed did, but what it said. and joining us now to help interpret that and where the markets and the economy may be going next, mike cuggino is manager of the permanent portfolio funds with more than $4 billion in funds, and diane swonk who is chief economist at mesirow capital. diane, what the fed said is that financial conditions are leveling out and further financial conditions are improving further. do you agree? >> i agree. they are leveling out and they certainly didn't say they were soaring ahead, did they? >> no. >> well, saying we are seeing some cross currents in the economy, and good news and bad news. the armageddon scenario is behind us, but we are moving into an economic recovery, but it's very fragile and will be a rocky recovery at best. so the fed left the door open, the backdoor open to continue its quantitative easing, if necessary, and expand the balance sheet, although i it would like as we continue into move into 2010 to reduce the balance sheet and not raise the rates for quite a while, but certainly accommod
bosses are faring. up 6.1%. the ftse in terms of percentage had its biggest gain. using 4600 as a flaw. the dax being the outperformer up 0.8%. cable trading 1.67.. >>> let's move on and look at some of the asian stories with chloe. good morning do you have. >> good morning, steve. approximate we had a strong session for a monday. a lot of optimism that the growth picture in asia is very much on the way, bolstered by the pmi numbers out of china. a lot of green, as you can see, with an exception of the nikkei. a tad lower, but hanging above that 10,000 level. the south korean kospi pulling ahead by half a percent, setting the tone for the rest of asia for the month of july. look at the numbers, actually down for the month, 20%. still better than expected. over in the greater china market, more news. the hang seng up by 1.1%. investors getting a lot of conviction over those pmi numbers. the bombay sansex also higher by half a percent. it will be about the job numbers we get out of the u.s. later this week. >>> nymex light sweet crude processed $70 per barrel. gaining ground by more than
-ed opinion piece in the "new york times" saying that the u.s. continues to need that stimulus, do everything that's important right now, but they have to keep an eye on the future, he says. estimate ewe husband and the net debt of the country is growing at 1 percentage point per month and that's something to worry about long-term. we'll talk more about that in a moment. taking a look at bond, the 10-year bund at this point trading down right now. the yield is lower at 3.27% ahead of the boe minutes which which are due out in the next hour. and also we've got the ten-year note here down to 3.45% having rallied at this point yesterday. taking a look at gold with a bit of dollar strength this morning, we are seeing a bit of gold weakness just a skosh, off 0.4% down about $3.85. joining us now is ivan mamale and simon grose-hodge in lichtenstein. simon, i want to start with you. in your notes, you say essentially the data that everyone has been pinning their recovery hopes on is starting to plateau. i'm wondering if you see the markets kind of in that same sort of stall pattern heading here into
there looking?g? >> not too well, rebecca. as you know, asia is not getting a chance to react to the u.s. confidence data coming out on friday. a sell-off in the region. the kospi down 2.8%. the economy did nothing to lift the shang hang market. the hang seng down 3.6% and the sensex 2.3%. in terms of nymymenymex, down a. brent should be lower as well following it. brent is trading around the ranges of $70.95 a barrel. bertha, please give us some good news. >> christine, we seem to be taking our tone from you. the market looks to extend losses. futures well below fair value. we'll get another read on consumers. earnings from lowe's and data later from housing from the national association of realtors. those are likely to weigh on the markets. we've got dow futures 120 points or so below fair value. nasdaq futures well below. s&p futures as well. taking a look at the bond market, we are seeing a move to safe havens, the yields lower. the guild in london, a record low yield. the ten-year bund at 3.3%. the ten-year note here. we are going to hear from ben bernanke at the end of the week. th
in the u.s. the retail sector is in focus today as walmart posts second quarter results. >>> hello and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." so global equities trying to be firmer. the ftse cnbc 300 is up 21 points. we managed to get a positive close in wall street. european stock markets had a bit of a boost here this morning with the growth numbers out of france and germany. we're going to get the eu whole number coming out in a while. the ftse 100 up 0.8% as well as the xetra dax. cac 40 up 0.7% and smi up 0.5%. what happened this morning, the growth dmeft irk numbers up 0.3% in germany. it's down on a comparative basis, 7.1% less than where we were standing for growth a year ago. but quarter on quarter, it was positive. that helped the euro extend some gains against the dollar this morning. euro/dollar up to 1.4245. dollar is firmer against the yen and sterling rebounded, as well against the greenback. >> those upbeat comments from the fed gave markets here enough region to cheer. markets gaining higher in asia, for instance, the nikkei 225 up 0.8%. the kospi marginally lower
morning, good day or good evening depending on where you are. if you take a look at the u.s. futures, remember, you have a three-day winning streak as we closed out on wall street. a little bit of strength in the futures if you take a peek at the fair value here today. the dow, nasdaq and the s&p, little change in the fair value. if you take a look at the bund in germany, first we'll take a look at the ten-year bund. set the peace. 3.27% is the yield there and you go home with, viola, 3.42%. we'll call it 20 basis points in your pocket. and the price of gold at this time of the day is going to sell for $940 an ounce. little changed on the session. becky, take it away. >> i want to get back on those euro zone august flash services pmi. it was a reading of 49.5, that is a significant increase from july. still, just fractionally below that 50 par level, if you like, and well ahead of the forecast, as well. 46.5 was what the analysts were looking for there. manufacturing pmi, again, 47.9. ahead of forecasts, ahead of the previous month, but still below that par level by just a fraction.
. no brent, we don't have brent, but it should be pulling, as well. mike, over to you in the u.s. how are you today? >> thanks, christine. doing well, thank you. hope you are too. and we're about 5 1/2 hours away from the opening bell here in the united states. and we do have the futures pointing toward a lower open across the board. basically investors doing a read through from what's going on in asia and china and barring a major meltdown in the stock market today. nonetheless, this could be the best stock rally, the best six-month rally, that is, since 1933. moving over to the treasury markets, even though we did see that slight selloff in the stock market on friday, we did see the price go up and the yield come down. that's continuing today at 2.3%, but maybe a pronounced selloff if we move on to the ten-year tee note. right now we have the yield pulling in again just a little bit at 3.4%. as far as gold is concerned, it did go up 1% in friday's trading, and it might be oil price related, christine was just talking about and also inflation fear-related, but we did see the price holding st
of losses as investors wait for the new uk growth data. >> and in the u.s., a top fed official says the central bank will likely exit its current monetary stance next year, but a rate hike is still a ways off. >> hello and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." we'll kick off with the global equity session right now. the ftse cnbc global 300 is 22 points higher. we had the european markets yesterday down some 21 points or so, but we've reversed that an hour into trade right now. this is where we currently trade. the ftse 100 up nearly 0.5%. the dax up 0.835%. cac up 0.8%, as well. the dollar is trying to make gains today, as well. dollar edging back to 94 against the yen. euro/dollar, 1.4331. sterling/dollar, 1.6282 after getting below 1.62 and euro/sterling on that 0.88 mark. christine, good to see you. >> hey, ross, good to see you. happy friday. here in asia, increased confidence from the global economy helped to pull stocks higher, but not the picture we're seeing in shanghai right now. this particular market ending lower 279%. that dragged down the hang seng, as well, down 0.7
with a surprise loss in its banking division. >> i'm bertha coombs in the u.s. expectations are growing. federal officials say an economic recovery is still taking shape, there are still dangers. >> health low and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." global equities a little softer today as we go through the european open. the ftse cnbc global 300 down 0.5% one hour into the european trading session. stocks have gone for a dip today. but if we pull up the european bourses for you, we'll show you exactly where we stand. there we go. off 0.5%. ftse 100 off 0.5%, xetra dax off 0.16% cac 40 off more than 0.3%. dollar/yen 9 5.24. euro/dollar, under pressure. down to the low 1.41. big day for sterling today. the bank of england quarterly inflation report in an hour and a half where we hope to get more understanding of why the bank thought it necessary to extend its quantitative easing program. christine. >> hey, ross. here in asia, you mentioned software markets are very soft here today as investors brace for what the fed will say in its statement. nikkei 225 off its ten-month highs, down 1.4%. kos
and limited government that spur our economic growth over a period of time can be used to help out on the health care reforms. why not put these market principles to work? health care by the way is one of america's greatest industries and job creators. if we leave it alone and don't stifle it with a government takeover, health care will help us get a big prosperity boom in the next five to 10 years and longer. that's my take. i want to turn it over to my great friend, mary thompson, on "cnbc reports." mary, you're talking about the great recovery. >> we have a great show ahead, larry. thank you so much. "cnbc reports" starts right now. >> tonight on "cnbc reports." the bulls take a break and the bears win the day but there are several big names that have been down in the dumbs making a comeback now. on that list, aig. look at this chart. up 275% in a month. what's making this stock jump? fannie, freddie, bank of america, citigroup also making moves. in depth on the widely held stocks on the st. if almost everyone else owns them, shouldn't you? what we will learn from the kua kuants
a frangz at $942.95. joining us this morning to talk about what's been going on in these markets, quite a roller composter week so far. martin dean marnek and alexis dewann fund manager at global cap xa. alexis, i want to start with you. it seems as though these are the unsyncopal markets. everyone has been saying there is a lot of money on the sidelines. it seems every time we have a dip, folks come back in and put a floor on the market. is this sustainable? >> i think you're right. there's tons of money out there, especially in the money market funds. bur yeah, almost when you look at the big systemic risk, it's off the table currently. you look at indicators and ted spreads are trading at the same levels they used to at the beginning of the credit crisis. so this is encouraging. the problem is on the economy and is it sustainable. it's interesting to see that most of the of the revenues from the company were slightly below expectation, although most of them beat on the earnings line. through a lot of cost cutling and a lot of layoffs. that may not be good for unemployment going forwa
's been the last 24 hours or so at 3.33%. u.s. yields here moved fairly high yesterday as we saw a bigger appetite for risk and a lot of folks moved out of the bond fixed income market. we've got the ten-year notoriety now at 3.63% and gold at the moment not attracting too much of a bid, either, with a lot of folks continuing to have that appetite for risk. credit teen. >> bertha, joining us now for market strategy, we have christian baberg market strategist glaxo bank and hopefully we will have steven teich later in the show. christian, do you think markets are too optimistic? >> yes, we do think so. if you look at what's going on in markets right now, markets are pricing in that consumers will start a pick up in demand. namely, that inventory to a certain part will have to be refilled. but from that point on, markets are pricing in a huge pick up in consumer demand and quite frankly, we've had some difficulty seeing where it's coming from. because if you see what consumers are doing, especially in the united states but also in europe, there are savings more now, the savings rate in the
if there's a backlash against that. phil lebeau, thanks so much for joining us. and you heard it first on "street signs," the demi-ashton indicate or. sanjay kapoor told us to look to invest in countries that have an older population like demi moore over a younger generation like ashton kutcher. well, it turns out the hollywood power couple watched them and they weighed in on the demi-ashton ratio via twitter. here are the tweets between the couple. ashton says to demi, "i love that we've become the demi-ashton ratio. lmao. you can figure out what that means on your own. it seems that i'm now a control factor in the markets. he goes on to say that -- this is ashton. "i love that i'm described as the beer-drinking party boy with no cash." i guess he feels like he's done a few things recently to make some money, and probably rightly so. but that's pretty funny. they're watching "street signs." let's take a look at the markets here as we get into the close. we were just barely in positive territory. at last check the dow has now turned negative just in the past few minutes. it's essential
>>> here in new york, markets taking a breather. commodity stocks and banks seeing -- >> in the u.s., state of wall street's rally could hinge this weekend on data on the consumer and the outcome of the fed meeting. >>> welcome to cnbc's worldwide exchange. we'll start out with a look at the global session at the beginning of the week. down six points. good session as we heard in japan in japan in particular today. nick kay off ten-month highs. one hour into their trading week taking profits from the ten-month highs we closed in at on friday. household goods, construction, weakest sectors at the moment.t. dollar is trying to retain most of its gains. lost a little bit of ground to the yen.n. still 97.40. ua dollar 141.89. bank of england's meeting last week and u.s. selling 85.33. nice to see you. >> hey, nice to see you, too. hope you had a good weekend. in asia, nice start to the week. duty optimism of the u.s. jobs on friday. fueling optimism. u.s. could lead the world into a recovery. that is providing support to the markets. ten-month high.. rise in machinery orders. first time
're not clashing. very interesting. a little bit of a pullback yesterday here in the u.s. we snapped a four-session winning streak. this morning, it looks as though the futures right now are looking to the upside. we've got dow futures up by fair value by about 30 points or so. nasdaq futures are a bit below, dragging down cautious comments coming from john chambers at cisco. he says he thinks the economy is turning the corner. there are questions about cisco's organization and how they're managing the company these days. as far as the bond market is concerned, today it's all about the fate of quantitative easing. we're waiting to hear from the ecb, the boe and, of course, we do have here in the u.s. the jobs picture that we're going to be watching. the ten-year bund is at 3.38% and we've got the ten-year note coming back down in terms of the yield. a little bit yesterday having reached a high of 3.76%. we now know how much the quarterly funding is going to be. we're going to see at least $23 billion in ten years next week being auctioned. gold is easing off despite the weakness in the cora
's get on to our first guest of the show. joining us, paul day and makio camada from lgt capital. let's start by talking with, well, both of you about what's going on with this inflation/deflation picture. paul, let's start with you. do you believe we're in an inflationary or deflationary environment at the moment? >> well, i think that the inflation seem to be the ones that shout the loudest. my view is going forward for the next half of the year, deflation will be the big problem. it's something we've never seen in the west historically. so i don't think people have the perception of what deflation can do for the economy. if you look at the household deleverage, it's going to carry on going on in the united states. i feel that the deflation argument will continue. if you look at things, for example, the length of unemployment in the states seems at the highest level since 1958. we've got many, many mortgage resets coming along at a time when real bond yields are at their highest level since around 1994. i think we will have sluggish rates. >> paul, where do you stand? >> i think i m
results giving the home builders a boost.qú coming up, toll brothers ceo himself will give us his outlook for the housing market. here's how we finished the day. up side day we ended up the highs of the session but still up 1.27% on the dow. nasdaq the big gainers there the technology names. 1 1/2%. 28 points up side. and the s&p 500 the overall market up more than a full percent, 11 points higher. let's get more on today's action. bob pisani our eye on the floor at the new york stock exchange. hey, bob. >> hello, rebecca. as you mentioned, pretty much status quo on the fomc statement but a little bit of an upgrade on the economy talking about economic activity leveling out. that helped a little bit. let's take a look at some of the big movers. i'm with you, rebecca. i talked all day about toll brothers. the important thing is the company reported orders to buy homes increased 3.3% year over year. that's the first one in four years. one big reason was the cancellation rate only 8 1/2% that's magnitudes of orders better than the quarter before and the do quarters before. that's good news h
loss for the second quarter. >> i'm bertha coombs in the u.s. the fed kicks off for a two-day meeting. >> hello and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." global equities are trying to nudge higher at the moment. the ftse cnbc global 300 is up 7 points this morning. an hour into trade, we have gains after slim losses yesterday. we hit ten-month highs on friday. we'll see whether we can finish back at the highs today. european stock markets one hour into the session, we're up 0.4% on the ftse 100. xetra dax up 0.6%. cac 40 up 0.6% and smi nearly flat. the chinese data shows below forecast factory expansion, as christine was talking about. dollar/yen, 96.85. euro/dollar, 1.4160. sterling/dollar is below 1.65 at the moment. euro/sterling is very much in the ranges. christine. >> here in asia, a positive showing across the board here. in china, we had that industrial production number arising for the month of july, but coming in below expectations. this particular data, really, the key focus. the nikkei 225 up 0.6%. the kospi up 0.2%. the bok kept rates steady there, as well. the shangha
about 0.9%. psychiatrist teen. >> hey, bertha. joining us now for market strategy, we have our panelist, david cosbow. and here in singapore, steven davis, ceo of javelin wealth management. steven, are you at all surprised at how big a role the shanghai market played today in dictating market direction here in data? is this a start of more to come? >> i don't think one should be at all surprised. i think the only thing that's a surprised is that it's taken as long as it has in order to have a relatively sharp, quick correction. i think overall, asian markets have all rallied extraordinarily strongly this year, and in particular, obviously, since their lows of march 9th. so it's inevitable that we're going to see a degree of profit taking, readjustment of portfolios, call it what you will. i think on a longer term basis, the outlook looks roently positive and certainly our view remains that one should be using bouts of selling pressure to accumulate a bit more on weakness. >> david, do you agree with what stephen just said? >> yes, i think china is definitely important. there's no -- and
'm courtney reagan. in the u.s., more dominoes could fall. more banks could go under before the current crisis ends. >>> hello and welcome to cnbc's "worldwide exchange." let's show you where the session currently is is. the ftse 300, 23 points dipped off the high for the session. european stock markets one hour into the trading day. after making three percentage points gains on monday, we're three points up again today as well. investors put more risk into the stock market. dollar-yen, 94.93. euro-dollar back from highs. cable knowledging back from the highs. euro/sterling, steady. christine, good to see you. >> here in asia, i'll call it the bernanke bounce after the optimistic comments from bernanke over the weekend. saying that the global economy could be coming out of the recession. the nikkei up 2.5%. the kospi, continuing to watch this climb. this market last week climbed sharply. still up 60% year to date. the sensex up 2.4%. overall a strong showing in asia. crude oil seems to be putting on gains, in hopes that a global economy is in order. light crude, $74 a barrel. brent is tacking
course, is what's going to happen in the u.s. with that jobs report. so a little caution going on and profit going on ahead of that report. the nikkei 225 ended up 0.2%. the kospi up 0.7 ers. but take a look at the shanghai composite and hang seng. these are getting hit big time. there was talk about tightening monetary policy, government researchers saying china will not tighten policy before developed nations do so because it first needs a recovery in ex ports. still, a lot of investors are worried that's going to happen. in terms of oil, this is how it looks for nymex and brent. nymex light sweet crude is looking 67 cents lower, $71.29 a barrel and brent is trading lower, as well, $74.23 a barrel. looks like it's all about jobs here in asia. looking ahead to what you guys are going to give us, bertha. >> very big numbers, christine. very big expectations. the estimates range from about 320,000 jobs to goldman sachs which now says it thinks maybe we only lost 250,000 jobs, only. that's nothing to sneer at, however, that would be a significant drop-off in the rate of declines.
that was an important one he was watching, and he says that could mean that the technicals aren't going to take us much higher from here and that you could see some selling pressure come monday. still, the bull thesis remains. as the buck burns, things priced in dollars continue to reflate. we're seeing that also play out in the overall stock market side. on the fundamental side of the thesis, demand looks like it could potentially be improving. remember, earlier this week we got that very bullish inventory report, and john kilduff of mf global says that he's seeing some strength in the markets with stocks moving higher and also with the idea that perhaps really this is a genuine demand turnaround, that we are seeing some genuine strength in the markets. where we're not seeing strength is in natural gas. that is still on the weak side, rick, and it's more of a u.s.-centric story. natural gas versus oil. natural gas is u.s. oil, more world. back over to you in chicago, rick. >> well, thank you, rebecca. and it has been an unreal world in terms of treasuries this week. first of all, volume's been somewha
of analysts think gold is locked in a range new mexico after the united states labor day. >> joining us right now. we have our panel dibie and daniel. gentlemen, thank you very much for being with us. daniel, let me start with you first. a lot of risk aversion here in asia. how bumpy is the road ahead going to be for equities? >> i think it's going to be reasonably bumpy. valuations are clearly extend at about 9 1/2 times earnings. your risk/reward from these kind of levels is poor. back testing is a guide. also, i think there has to be concerns about the economic cycle here. it's clear that the u.s. consumer is doing nothing, that the spending is still very weak, both in the u.s. and europe and that is going to undermine the global economic cycle. and i think sentiment towards it could weaken in the months ahead and asian equities could drop 10% to 15%. >> we're getting news that china's sovereign wealth fund is looking to increase its joe seas by this year. surely, they must view that things are bottoming out. >> even at the six months horizon, the economic news flow will be very supportive
, as well, currently standing at $72.34. the weekly u.s. inventory reports coming out today, 10:30 new york time, a dow jones forecast is calling for oil to fall by 600,000 barrels, gasoline to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillates to rise by 300,000 barrels. what does this wednesday have in store for u.s. stocks? for that, we'll check in with mike in the u.s. good morning to you, mike. good afternoon and thank you, maura. kind of an interesting move in oil after hitting $75 a barrel and closing lower. but here in the states, it looks like the dow, at least, could roll a lucky seven when the opening bell rings in, what, 5 1/2 hours from now? all of the three major indices pointing toward a higher open this morning. and interesting, i think worth pointing out, is that the nasdaq is up a whooping 660% off of the march lows. even with stocks moving higher yesterday, we saw the price of treasuries going up, as well. let's take a look at what the bund is doing this morning. we have the yield on the bund creeping up ever so slightly at 3.26%. the yield on the benchmark ten-year t-note here
on policy and the federal reserve. >>> is the worst behind us? a growing number of the nation's top forecasters says the economy has already bottomed. today's market decision, the fed decision, trade data, a majority treasury auction and weekly mortgage applications. crude inventories, earnings from major retailers and much, much more as "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and carl quintanilla. the fed is set to wrap up a two-day meeting this afternoon. it has a policy statement that's expected at 2:15 eastern time. the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold for now even though a growing course of directors is looking for the fed to upgrade its comments on the economy. different economists say we could be nearing tend of a recession. the fed is expected to announce a program to buy $300 trillion in treasuries will come to an end in september. >>> a new survey of the nation's economists find ben bernanke should be reappointed to a new term as federal reserve chairman. mea
morning, obviously, ann thompson of cnbc in hyannis port bringing us the news. john harwood is our chief washington correspondent and joins us in d.c. today. john, people are going to immediately turn, at least in the business world, to try and answer questions about what this means for the liberal agenda, business policy going forward. do you see any effects in the short to medium term? >> i doubt it, carl. you know, ted kennedy is, as that statement from barack obama said, the foremost legislator of this time. his career had incredible impact for decades. his family had an even greater impact for an even longer period of time. he's one of 60 votes in the senate. there are many like-minded senators. there are strong committee chairs trying to move health legislation and i think democrats will try to use the emotie emotional bounce and umph from this moment and the grief people are feeling to try to propel this initiative forward. but i don't see a very, very large impact in the short-term or the medium term. democrats are going to end up with another senator from massachusetts, whenever
that uncle sam is borrowing too much and spend doing much, which will slow future prosperity and buy us a system toward inflation. in the short run, excess liquidity from the fed may be good for stocks. in the longer term, it is not good for stocks or the economy, or your pocketbook. that's my take. we will talk about this at several points during the show with our fedex expert and our investors. now, first up, let's look at this triple digit gain and go to rebecca jarvis whose has the inside look at stock market central. hello. >> hello, the two day losing streak comes to an end and stocks hit their high just after the statement. you heard it on the economy. things are leveling out. traders read that as stable day, a hint of optimism. bullish news out of toll brothers. they went up 3.05. and we'll talk about it later on the show. you do see the upside all the home buildersment macy's beat expectations and raised guidance and said the new store concepts based more on regional taste are working. it got a big pop and since the march low, it's already up over 100%. from tech land, upbeat r
there, for-profit education has been a big place on fire. it's up 10%. phil lebeau has more for us and breaking news on cars. hey, phil. >> we do, rebecca. the cash for clunkers program, the deadline for dealers to file paperwork at the federal government has been extended once again. remember, it was originally supposed to end at 8:00 last night. government said listen, we'll extend it until noon for the dealers to file paperwork. now they're saying until 8:00 tonight. because there's so many dealers trying to get paperwork in on the cash for clunkers deal. medical list, that's the latest on the program. we're still waiting for the final number in terms of how many sales, as well as how much of the $3 billion the government set aside will be used up for cash for clunkers. >> and i'm still waiting for cash for fall handbags and purses. >> cash for clunkers, refrigerators, appliances, washing machines. >> handbags and shoes. i can't wait. it's going to be great. >> i just want to check for the news. >> let's talk more about ben bernanke and his renomination. what does it mean for th
in the thekd quarter shrank by a more than expected quarter. a lot like u.s., ended up with minus 6 and change from a revised number. hey, we don't have any buybacks until tomorrow. the first of september we'll get a buyback, especially after steve had those great moments with the new york fed governor, dudley. of course, monday nany market participants still say that issuing of debt is a monetization. many don't understand why they don't admit it. as far as the market today, it is trying to annticipate both ap and friday's jobs report. jobs are king. mark haines, back to you. >> santelli, thank you. >>> sell-off in asia overnight which is now impacting us. china's shanghai composite led the pack to the downside dropping 6 3/4%. that is a three-month closing low. the month of august, chinese stocks dropped more than 21%. their second biggest monthly loss in 15 years. hong kong's hang seng lost about 2%. japan's nikkei down .4. after jumping more than 200 points earlier in the session. guy johnson, things a little rocky in europe? >> yes, to say the least, mark. that china story certainly havin
inventory report has its impact on the market, bob pisani kicks us off with our coverage at the new york stock exchange. hi, bob. >> sue, in fact, those inventory levels did, in fact, move the market, moved energy stocks. but first i want to show you the s&p 500 here very quickly. we hit 990 on the s&p, and it moved up very quickly after that. i think that that was a little area that was very important for a number of traders. that's about where we closed yesterday, and so the bottom line here is, a little more volume here in these exchange-traded funds that track that s&p when it hit 990. remember, the volume is still on the thin side. you look at energy stocks, sue is right, oil inventory showed a draw down. and energy stocks, which by the way, have been basically going sideways for the last several months, also took off here. of energy stocks are the biggest sector in the s&p 500 moving to the up side. finally, deere earnings out, had the conference call. the story is pretty simple. they're expecting break-even earnings in this quarter. we were expecting a gain of 35 cents. the reason
, everybody. ben bernanke says the worst behind us, nouri el rabinny says the chances of a double-dip recession are increasing. we will discuss who is right and who is wrong. >> another 150 to 200 banks will fail because of the current credit crisis and will be joining us live with details. this is the call on cnbc. >>> stocks moving higher in continuation of friday's rally on optimism that the worst of the optimism is behind us, not everyone agrees, including nuriel roub beanie. we will be bringing you more on that later. right now the dow up by .7 of a percent, five straight days in a row we are in the black. as for the s & p 500 up. and the nasdaq in the back. black. >> all big three talking about earnings improving in the next years. cash for clunkers expiring today but other programs traders are starting to get interest n you know, there is cash for appliances, part of the rebate program, rather part of the stimulus program here, $a 50 to $200 rebates for high-efficiency appliances supposed to start in the next month or two, appliance shipments a horrible time, down 15% year
's probably about where we are at this point. at least we're not going deeper. >> tell us how you think the federal reserve is going to process this information today of somewhat better than expected results and the improvement in the jobs number. >> i think the real issue there is what does that do to the forecast? we know that the forecast was looking for a recovery, or at least beginning to be a pickup in the second half of the year. when you see the jobs numbers flowing like that, i think that confirms their outlook. they'll feel a lot better about it. >> i know you were with the fed. what do you think right now of the fed's ability to get out of this in time? do you think inflation from the current stimulus is a foregone conclusion? no way the fed can pivot at the right time? >> i think they have a real challenge on their hands. there's no question about it. you're going to have a slowing housing market. you're still going to have high unemployment. probably not a lot of signs of inflation. and that's going to be a tough sell to try to raise interest rates. everybody politically is
's rick santelli joins us now with a look inside the bond market. rick? >> thank you, tiler. it was a big up price down yield day for treasuries in response to the softness in the equity markets. as you look at this intraday chart of ten-year note yields, it's interesting to see. but what is really interesting is the five-year, the mid part of the curve led the drop in dwreelds and the buying that was going on by investors nationally, and globally. it had a sense of. but the ten-year by the end of the day, when equities had no bounce to put forth, did play catch-up and ended up ten basis points lower. the next chart, a couple months, you can see these lowest yields in about a month, july 13th, a month plus. now, the dollar was also part of the safety game today. as a matter of fact, for two reasons. on the one hand, the china story, lower equities. definitely puts a question mark in some of the aggressiveness or the future aggressive possibilities for commodities. so the tail wagging the dog, commodities, dollar denominee commodities moving down. but the dollar in and of itself is a safe
teaching you all of the tricks uses to pick out and trade them like a pro, which i used to be. let's get rolling. one of the easiest ways to identify potential cramer names, names we like in cramerica, stocks that could but not necessarily always end up on the show is by watching a sainted group of stocks, a sainted group of stocks called the new high list. >> moo! >> stocks called the new high list. stocks on that list, the highest of the high, obviously have to have something going for them. either they're part of a major bull market. >> moo. >> -- or the individual stocks themselves have serious momentum. >> buy, buy, buy! >> no matter how they get there, most of the stocks on the new high list keep going higher. that's the thing about the market, it's not that hard to play once you understand that there's more continuity than change. more continuity the stocks go up than change. things keep going the way they were, object in motion. unless something radical changes, they're going to keep going that way. it's you that have to alter your course. but i don't just pluck names off of the
is is a problem here. stocks up 25% but telling us not much in the term of in way of top line pickup in the third quarter guidance. 6 to 10%, they declined 9.5% in the second quarter, not a sequential improvement we are seeing. as a result, trish, analysts raising estimates the second half of the year and 2010 are going to have pressure lowering the s & p there is lowe's from the month, 18 to $23. >> a subsector. lowe's is so tied to the housing market and not having a recovery. >> they did say they were -- receive sold signs of bottom. remember, these stocks have been moving up in anticipation of top line growth would be manifesting itself in some way, even modestly, and they are not really getting that, not getting the support they need from the bulls. >> talk about later in today's session, late-day rallies, it possible today? >> going to be harder today for a very simple reason. the market opened down immediately almost 200 points. think about what's happened in the last month and a half. when the market opens, people who don't believe in it start shorting the middle of the day and have to co
will be with us in a moment to help us discuss this, along with john tamney of real clear market. firstoff, pearson joins us now with the full report. was anybody surprised down there, hampton? >> the timing, yes, overall, probably not, president obama interrupting his martha's vineyard vacation to make the announcement appointing ben bernanke as second term of federal reserve. the president said ben bernanke has already made history. >> good morning, everybody. as expert on the causes of the "great depression," i'm sure ben never imagined he would be part of a team responsible for preventing another but because of his background, his temperament, his courage and creativity, that's exactly what he has helped to achieve. that is why i am reappointing him to another term as chairman of the federal reserve. >> and for his part, the fed chairman sounded like he was warming up for his senate confirmation hearing. >> mr. president, i commit today to you, and to the american people that if confirmed by the senate, i will work to the utmost of my abilities, with my colleagues at the federal reserv
from earlier in the session. two-day dollar index gives us a lot of info, as well. we can't get anywhere near yesterday's levels, and we're now hovering against unchanged, after spending much of today in lightly positive territory. sue, back to you. >> thank you, very much, rick. investors get three key readings on the economy, kind of mixed news today. jobless claims rise, but the latest read on manufacturing coming better than expected. plus, a forward-looking index, measuring the economy's ross protects, rising for a fourth straight month. so what do policy makers make of this? cnbc's steve liesman joins us from jackson hole, wyoming where policy makers are gthed from around the world. >> yes, about 40 bankers are gathered in jackson hole as they do just about every year, going back about 27 years running now. and the title of this conference is financial stability and macro economic policy. but the key issue is obviously the economic crisis. whether or not what the fed has done has worked and where they go from here, where they make the turn. we sat down yesterday, for an ex
market. they are driving the turn towards economic recovery. let us give them c. as for today's job market reports, this came in at minus 247,000 jobs there. was a 43,000 improved revision from the prior two months but the whole total beat the street consensus of $300,0300,000 loss. is it possible cash for clunkers is helping with manufacturing hours? we may see the first positive production report out in a couple days, this july, be the first positive one since last october. but in truth there, are negatives, i want to be balanced. the labor force is still shrinking, that is not good. jobs are still dropping, that is not good. i don't think today's 9.4% unemployment rate is going to hold as the peak. former labor secretary robert reich and last night's bullish jobs man joe lavorgne will hash all this out in a little while. let me again underscore my take on the new bull market and the turning point towards economic rebound. these are transformational issues that are changing the investment and business landscape. as for investors out there, you have earned a wee bit of optimism aft
of stuff positively going to impact us even further. >> on this better than expected issue, the expectations were so dire. we were talking about the depression-like scenarios. it's easy to be better than expected these days, isn't it? >> yeah. the hurdles are going to become higher. we're also getting to a point where the reports will be good. the sim report, next one might be 50%. we're going to need that, you're right, mandy. but i think that's where we are headed. i just think that rather than get spooked out of a 5% or 10% correction and miss another 30%c move, i prefer to stay focused on what it could do in the next couple of years. >> we never talked about brett favre, either. congratulations in advance of that super bowl. >> we're going to win that super bowl even if we've got to wear green and gold. >> jim, rich, thanks, guys. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is up next. >>> this is cnbc.com news now. >> bboeing shares are higher. first time claims for jobless benefits fell to the first time last week to 570,000 considering the claims fell four
oil out of -- >> $72 is still a good number. it used to be in the u.s. they wouldn't do anything. >> talking about oil prices? >> yeah for $48 or $46 was a cutoff point. and 72 now, people really i thought underestimated the oil field companies, first of all their book was booked up for a long way out for higher oil prices. some of it comes off and leaves a formidable book and $72 for a lot of these projects is still very, very -- >> you covered oil for a long time. >> jack of all trades. well, there's a whole pile of stuff to talk about on economic front today. the new survey of the forecaster says the united states doesn't need a second fiscal similar lus package but instead should cap government spending over the next two years. the semiannual poll by the business economic finds most surveys were worried about the outlook for the government's budget. now, we will actually get the full story in the next half hour here on the show. we're going to be joined by chris varvares. >>> let's talk more about the federal reserve. the federal reserve reportedly making about $14 billion o
democrats because we feel it's the first step towards government takeover of health car care. >> with us now is our dynamic you do woe, cbs contributor robert reich, whose book is called "super capitalism" and stev steven moore, "the end of prosperity." i have such a headache on this issue and i don't know who's going to pay for the aspirin. robert, i know you are in favor of the public option but should the president be pragmatic now that the polls are against him and saying it's not going to happen. should he give up. >> he should not give up because a public option is very critical. you have to have competition amongst the insurance companies, there is not enough competition. we saw monday insurance stock soared over rumors on the weekend the president is backing down from the public option. it's all about money and the more money they make, the more health insurance will cost. number two, the white house has to be very specific the president is not going to sign a bill that doesn't have this in it. all the waffling that's gone on over the last two or three days an waffling whether the pr
much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> you bet. bye-bye. >> real quick let's take a look at the market here before we go. on the day we're up 44 points but that doesn't really tell the whole story because we started down pretty significantly on the day. we've had i atriple-digit snapback. we were above 9,600 a short time ago. tjx, which is t.j. maxx, hitting a 52-week high. i'm melissa francis in for erin burnett. i'll see you here tomorrow as well. up next is "the closing bell" with maria bartiromo. >> announcer: this is cnbc.com "news now." >>> the treasury -- sold $28 billion in seven-year notes. >>> a&e networks is buying lifetime entertainment for an undisclosed amount. the deal gives nbc universal a partner with disney and hearse in a&e, a stake in lifetime which is jointly owned by its two partners. >>> sanford financial cfo james davis has pleaded guilty to three felony counts for his role in the firm's alleged ponzi scheme. that's cnbc.com "news now." first in business worldwide. i'm julia boorstin. >>> and there's a live picture of the floor of the new york stoc
's market action. joining us to discuss that is scott wren, equity strategy with wells fargo, and mary jane rapp, with fifth third asset management. thanks to both of you for joining us. >> hi, melissa. >> hi, scott. let me start with you. what do you think about the rally today? >> i don't think it's very surprising. we've had a big move in a short period of time. i think what you've seen here over the last couple of weeks is we've broken through some technical levels. you've got a lot of people that really missed most if not all of this move. you've got traders jumping in. you've got professionals jumping in. you've got retail investors jumping in. and i think a pause here, we didn't see much of a downturn at all here. so i think the momentum at least in the very short term is still going to take us a bit higher. >> scott, you think a lot of people missed almost all of this move? you think there's a lot of money in the sidelines? >> i do. melissa, earlier when we moved up off the early march lows, my feeling was hey, we're not getting any chasers in here, there's not much money coming in
. >>> and the mortgage bankers association reporting that the number of u.s. homeowners either delinquent on their mortgage payment or in some stage of foreclosure was up to a record 13.1% in the second quarter. certainly not the kind of record you want to see. we now have mary thompson with some breaking news. let me get right to headquarters with that story. ma mary? >> that's right, maria. this is on the gap, the company coming in with earnings a penny ahead of expectations at 33 cents a share. you might recall that about two weeks ago the gap reported, or said ha it would earn somewhere between 30 and 32 cents a share. beating on the bottom line at 32 cents a share. revenue at 3.3 and a quarter billion dollars. some other highlights. the company's second quarter same-store sales were down by 8% but that's better than the 10% decline we saw in last year's second quarter and its online sales actually increased in the second quarter by 17%. breaking down the company's different units on a same-store sales basis and keep in mind these are sales that have been open for more than a year. ga
are going to e-mail us and hate us. people are buying it. >> you thought i was going to go ballistic over krugman's big government call but here is the deal. >> you never fail to surprise me, larry? >> i'll tell you, the reason i was relatively calm on a seasonally-adjusted basis. i think he has the story right, not the fiscal basis. >> look how happy he is. >> it's the monetary package. there is no question that the federal reserve used big government emergency policies to pour liquidity, guarantee deposits and bonds. there's no question.. i think krugman got the story right but for the wrong reason. >> what about the $800 billion stimulus package? >> to me, you'll never convince me that borrowing from peter to transfer the money to paul has any stimulative affects whatsoever. i still they would have been better cutting personal and business tax rates for that kind of money. i think that would add a bigger impact. just my thought. >> i like that i don't think he was talking about the monetary piece. >> i morphed it in. >> that's it for "the call." i will see you on closing bell. i'm meli
to report just before, as you said, the closing bell. it took all of us off guard, i can tell you that. but let's get right to these numbers because that 24 cents a share that dell is reporting does include pretax expenses of $87 million, or about 4 cents per share for "organizational effectiveness actions. of course we'll get more directions and color on exactly what that means. but that 24 cents in fact does beat by a penny the 23-cent estimate. also on better than expected revenue. as you were talking about last hour, maria, certainly that is the important metric here to see that sales are improving at this company. $12.8 billion against the 12.6 or 12.7 billion that wall street was anticipating. gross margins, 18.7%. good news there. let's break it out by business sector as well because that is going to help tell this story. large enterprise revenues, $3.3 billion, right in line with expectations. public revenue a little bit of aw disappointment here. this is part of the government contracts that the company enjoys. 3.8 billion versus the 4 billion that some on the street were anti
are in such bad shape and will drag us down, why are retailers up? maybe are you shorting retailers? >> no, i'm not shorting retailers. that's one of the sectors, industry group you don't want to be short in the early stages of a bull market. when something goes from 100 down to 40 and then from 40 back up to 60, that's a big gain but you're still only at 60 on the way back to 100. so keep in mind these numbers. these numbers are not that bad. but one thing you don't want to do is short the retailers or short consumer cyclical in the early stages before market. history is clearly on my side on that one. >> all right, guys.. we're going to leave it there. thanks to both of you for joining us. trish. >> thanks so much. nobel laureate paul krugman saying there's a big reason why the u.s. appears to have averted a second great depression. his answer? big government. so is he right? larry, stay calm. coming up next. >>> liesman versus santelli in today's call of the wild. >> he gets it right sometimes. >> cnbc interview with price line ceo jeff boyd. the company is drawing profits in a tough trave
, here at the fdic, its second quarter banking profile tells us that by the end of june, its list of so-called problem banks was at a 15-year high, some 416 institutions with combined assets of just under $300 billion. fdi-insured banks had a $3.7 billion aggregate net loss in the second quarter, two out of three institutions reporting lower quarterly earnings than a year ago. 28.3% were unprofitable. net chargeoff rates, set a quarterly record. $48.9 billion versus $26.4 billion a year ago. the noncurrent loan rate now at a record level. 41.4, up 14% in the second quarter. fdic chair sheila bair says banks are setting aside more reserves to deal with loan losses, but they will be a headache long after the economy recovers. >> in the second quarter, loss provisions were ten times what they were three years ago. the obvious reason for this is the ongoing need to bolster reserves in the face of rising levels of troubled loans. these credit problems will outlast the recession by at least a couple of quarters. >> now, as far as the health of the fdic, it's deposit insurance fund decreased b
also the cost cutters, look at cosco, for example, their sales down 8% in the u.s. overall, that sector really looking at being down somewhere around 6.2 or so percent. i want to bring in bob, who's watching the retailers. >> is that the big topic yesterday. everybody kept e-mailing me, what the heck is going on with aig here? we're also getting titanic volumes and bic moves up and down in aig as well as other financials. here's the important thing for traders yesterday. we ended the day 0140 million shares of aig traded on a day that normally trades 8 million. folks, that gets your attention. >> something to watch. >> some saying what the heck is that all about. we got an earnings report coming out but you don't trade 134 million shares on an earnings report. look for the explanation, and there's only two explanations. one is all of the funds who are big holders decided not to lend the stock anymore. that's the most likely explanation, trish. there was a ban on naked selling and it's possible they said we will be stingy giving the stock ou out. i know it's not borrowable a
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